afl-tips.com

Hawthorn vs Essendon Tips

Round 3 2027, Sat 3 Apr, 7:45pm AEDT at MCG: we tip Hawthorn by 35 with a 86% win chance.

Our tip
Hawthornby 35 points
Win chance
86%Hawthorn 85.5%, Essendon 14.5%
Predicted score
106–71Hawthorn first
Models with us
5 of 5every public model agrees

Every model on this game

HAWESS

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Hawthorn85.5%34.9 pts
Elo Predicts!Hawthorn82.0%30.0 pts
s10Hawthorn87.1%39.4 pts
SquiggleHawthorn90.7%47.7 pts
StattractionHawthorn87.1%41.8 pts
Wheelo RatingsHawthorn87.1%37.0 pts
Squiggle aggregateHawthorn86.7%39.1 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Hawthorn

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Hawthorn rate +11.6 overall (5th) and Essendon −22.3 (18th), which leaves Hawthorn 35 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Hawthorn+7.1+4.4+11.6LDWWL
Essendon−10.7−11.7−22.3LLLLL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
19no draws
Hawthorn wins
11
Essendon wins
8
Average margin
36.5points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2018Round 7MCGEssendon 67, Hawthorn 90Hawthorn
2018Round 20MCGHawthorn 107, Essendon 103Hawthorn
2019Round 13Marvel StadiumEssendon 96, Hawthorn 77Essendon
2020Round 14Adelaide OvalHawthorn 71, Essendon 87Essendon
2021Round 1Marvel StadiumEssendon 91, Hawthorn 92Hawthorn
2021Round 14York ParkHawthorn 73, Essendon 86Essendon
2022Round 8Marvel StadiumEssendon 108, Hawthorn 81Essendon
2023Round 1MCGHawthorn 65, Essendon 124Essendon
2024Round 1MCGEssendon 107, Hawthorn 83Essendon
2025Round 1MCGHawthorn 111, Essendon 85Hawthorn
2026Round 1MCGEssendon 83, Hawthorn 145Hawthorn
2026Round 20MCGHawthorn 132, Essendon 39Hawthorn
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

More on this game

All Round 3 tips Hawthorn fixture Essendon fixture