afl-tips.com

Hawthorn vs Greater Western Sydney Tips

Round 8 2027, Sun 9 May, 12:30pm AEST at York Park: we tip Hawthorn by 20 with a 72% win chance.

Our tip
Hawthornby 20 points
Win chance
72%Hawthorn 72.3%, GWS 27.7%
Predicted score
101–81Hawthorn first
Models with us
5 of 5every public model agrees

Every model on this game

HAWGWS

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Hawthorn72.3%19.5 pts
Elo Predicts!Hawthorn58.0%1.0 pts
s10Hawthorn71.3%19.4 pts
SquiggleHawthorn77.5%27.5 pts
StattractionHawthorn73.7%22.6 pts
Wheelo RatingsHawthorn68.9%16.1 pts
Squiggle aggregateHawthorn69.5%16.8 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Hawthorn

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Hawthorn rate +11.6 overall (5th) and GWS −0.2 (11th), which leaves Hawthorn 20 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Hawthorn+7.1+4.4+11.6LDWWL
GWS+3.1−3.3−0.2LWLWL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
201 drawn
Hawthorn wins
10
GWS wins
9
Average margin
30.3points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2019Round 21Manuka OvalGWS 29, Hawthorn 85Hawthorn
2020Round 5Sydney ShowgroundGWS 83, Hawthorn 49GWS
2021Round 15MCGGWS 72, Hawthorn 90Hawthorn
2022Round 16Sydney ShowgroundGWS 72, Hawthorn 50GWS
2023Round 5Norwood OvalGWS 77, Hawthorn 75GWS
2023Round 17Sydney ShowgroundGWS 85, Hawthorn 72GWS
2024Round 13York ParkHawthorn 85, GWS 79Hawthorn
2024Round 21Manuka OvalGWS 84, Hawthorn 82GWS
2025Round 3York ParkHawthorn 76, GWS 64Hawthorn
2025Finals Week 1Sydney ShowgroundGWS 88, Hawthorn 107Hawthorn
2026Opening RoundSydney ShowgroundGWS 122, Hawthorn 95GWS
2026Round 16MCGHawthorn 96, GWS 82Hawthorn
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

More on this game

All Round 8 tips Hawthorn fixture Greater Western Sydney fixture