afl-tips.com

Hawthorn vs Port Adelaide Tips

Round 9 2027, Sat 15 May, 7:35pm AEST at Marvel Stadium: we tip Hawthorn by 29 with a 81% win chance.

Our tip
Hawthornby 29 points
Win chance
81%Hawthorn 80.7%, Port Adelaide 19.3%
Predicted score
102–73Hawthorn first
Models with us
5 of 5every public model agrees

Every model on this game

HAWPTA

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Hawthorn80.7%28.6 pts
Elo Predicts!Hawthorn81.6%16.0 pts
s10Hawthorn79.5%28.4 pts
SquiggleHawthorn85.9%39.3 pts
StattractionHawthorn80.5%31.0 pts
Wheelo RatingsHawthorn78.4%25.7 pts
Squiggle aggregateHawthorn81.6%28.0 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Hawthorn

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Hawthorn rate +11.6 overall (5th) and Port Adelaide −11.2 (15th), which leaves Hawthorn 29 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Hawthorn+7.1+4.4+11.6LDWWL
Port Adelaide−6.2−5.0−11.2LLLLW
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
20no draws
Hawthorn wins
10
Port Adelaide wins
10
Average margin
27.8points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2017Round 11Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide 98, Hawthorn 47Port Adelaide
2018Round 11University of Tasmania StadiumHawthorn 64, Port Adelaide 61Hawthorn
2019Round 10York ParkHawthorn 80, Port Adelaide 49Hawthorn
2020Round 13Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide 68, Hawthorn 58Port Adelaide
2021Round 16Marvel StadiumHawthorn 53, Port Adelaide 87Port Adelaide
2022Round 2Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide 56, Hawthorn 120Hawthorn
2023Round 12Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide 151, Hawthorn 96Port Adelaide
2024Round 10Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide 80, Hawthorn 79Port Adelaide
2024Semi-FinalsAdelaide OvalPort Adelaide 75, Hawthorn 72Port Adelaide
2025Round 5Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide 121, Hawthorn 91Port Adelaide
2025Round 19York ParkHawthorn 87, Port Adelaide 49Hawthorn
2026Round 6Marvel StadiumHawthorn 89, Port Adelaide 86Hawthorn
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

They meet again in 2027

Sat 3 Jul1:35pm AEST · Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide36%PTAHAW64%HawthornHawthorn by 12Models 0–5

More on this game

All Round 9 tips Hawthorn fixture Port Adelaide fixture