afl-tips.com

Hawthorn vs St Kilda Tips

Round 11 2027, Sat 29 May, 1:15pm AEST at York Park: we tip Hawthorn by 21 with a 74% win chance.

Our tip
Hawthornby 21 points
Win chance
74%Hawthorn 74.2%, St Kilda 25.8%
Predicted score
99–78Hawthorn first
Models with us
5 of 5every public model agrees

Every model on this game

HAWSTK

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Hawthorn74.2%21.4 pts
Elo Predicts!Hawthorn78.1%22.0 pts
s10Hawthorn70.2%18.1 pts
SquiggleHawthorn78.0%28.2 pts
StattractionHawthorn70.4%19.0 pts
Wheelo RatingsHawthorn70.0%17.2 pts
Squiggle aggregateHawthorn74.2%21.6 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Hawthorn

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Hawthorn rate +11.6 overall (5th) and St Kilda −2.1 (13th), which leaves Hawthorn 21 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Hawthorn+7.1+4.4+11.6LDWWL
St Kilda−0.5−1.6−2.1WLLWL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
18no draws
Hawthorn wins
11
St Kilda wins
7
Average margin
38.4points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2018Round 6University of Tasmania StadiumHawthorn 89, St Kilda 54Hawthorn
2018Round 22Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 76, Hawthorn 80Hawthorn
2019Round 4Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 74, Hawthorn 69St Kilda
2020Round 16People First StadiumSt Kilda 80, Hawthorn 66St Kilda
2021Round 7Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 128, Hawthorn 59St Kilda
2022Round 4MCGHawthorn 73, St Kilda 142St Kilda
2022Round 20Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 75, Hawthorn 63St Kilda
2023Round 11Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 78, Hawthorn 88Hawthorn
2023Round 20Marvel StadiumHawthorn 93, St Kilda 122St Kilda
2024Round 9York ParkHawthorn 58, St Kilda 53Hawthorn
2025Round 17Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 74, Hawthorn 94Hawthorn
2026Round 12Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 67, Hawthorn 119Hawthorn
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

More on this game

All Round 11 tips Hawthorn fixture St Kilda fixture