afl-tips.com

Melbourne vs Adelaide Tips

Round 7 2027, Sat 1 May, 1:15pm AEST at Traeger Park: we tip Adelaide by 1 with a 52% win chance.

Our tip
Adelaideby 1 points
Win chance
52%Melbourne 48.4%, Adelaide 51.6%
Predicted score
93–95Melbourne first
Models with us
1 of 54 tip Melbourne

Every model on this game

MELADE

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Adelaide51.6%1.3 pts
Elo Predicts!Adelaide75.7%16.0 pts
s10Melbourne56.5%5.6 pts
SquiggleMelbourne52.6%2.7 pts
StattractionMelbourne50.9%1.1 pts
Wheelo RatingsMelbourne62.1%10.1 pts
Squiggle aggregateAdelaide52.5%0.6 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Adelaide

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Melbourne rate +5.0 overall (8th) and Adelaide +6.8 (6th), which leaves Adelaide 1 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Melbourne+7.3−2.3+5.0WWWLL
Adelaide+6.2+0.5+6.8WLWWL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
18no draws
Melbourne wins
9
Adelaide wins
9
Average margin
30.6points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2017Round 17Marrara OvalMelbourne 70, Adelaide 116Adelaide
2018Round 10Traeger ParkMelbourne 146, Adelaide 55Melbourne
2018Round 19Adelaide OvalAdelaide 77, Melbourne 90Melbourne
2019Round 11Marrara OvalMelbourne 88, Adelaide 90Adelaide
2020Round 10Adelaide OvalAdelaide 37, Melbourne 88Melbourne
2021Round 10Adelaide OvalAdelaide 96, Melbourne 95Adelaide
2021Round 22MCGMelbourne 104, Adelaide 63Melbourne
2022Round 16Adelaide OvalAdelaide 65, Melbourne 94Melbourne
2023Round 19MCGMelbourne 97, Adelaide 93Melbourne
2024Round 4Adelaide OvalAdelaide 63, Melbourne 78Melbourne
2025Round 17Adelaide OvalAdelaide 90, Melbourne 77Adelaide
2026Round 15Adelaide OvalAdelaide 79, Melbourne 62Adelaide
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

They meet again in 2027

Sun 20 Jun3:15pm AEST · Adelaide OvalAdelaide65%ADEMEL36%MelbourneAdelaide by 12Models 5–0

More on this game

All Round 7 tips Melbourne fixture Adelaide fixture