afl-tips.com

Melbourne vs Richmond Tips

The Sat 24 Apr, 7: 40pm AEST Round 6 2027 game at MCG has us expecting Melbourne to win by 26, with a 79% chance.

Tip from us
Melbourneby 26 points
Win chance
79% | Richmond 21.5% | Melbourne 78.5%
Score we're expecting
102–76Melbourne first
Models backing our tip
5 of 5every public model agrees

Every model for this game

MELRIC

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Melbourne78.5%26.0 pts
Elo Predicts!Melbourne73.0%29.0 pts
s10Melbourne83.5%33.6 pts
SquiggleMelbourne78.1%28.2 pts
StattractionMelbourne83.0%34.7 pts
Wheelo RatingsMelbourne84.0%32.5 pts
Squiggle aggregateMelbourne79.5%31.1 pts
Each source's win chance applies to the club it tips. The Squiggle API supplies public model tips. Squiggle's aggregate averages all models. Results are graded after the siren.

What leads us to tip Melbourne

For each club, our ratings use points against an average side to score attack and defence. The home ground and travel factors apply to this match.

Richmond is −21.8 (17th), while Melbourne is +5.0 overall (8th). On the day, that puts Melbourne 26 points ahead.

Between 2015 and 2026, the model tipped 68.3% of 2,476 games correctly. Its average margin error was 27.0 points. How it works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Melbourne+7.3−2.3+5.0WWWLL
Richmond−13.1−8.7−21.8LWLLL
Points per game against an average side at the start of 2027. Form covers the last five games of 2026, with the latest on the right.

Head-to-head results since 2012

Meetings
19no draws
Wins for Melbourne
11
Wins for Richmond
8
Margin on average
33.1points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2018Round 5MCGMelbourne 56, Richmond 102Richmond
2019Round 6MCGRichmond 85, Melbourne 42Richmond
2019Round 20MCGMelbourne 60, Richmond 93Richmond
2020Round 5MCGMelbourne 52, Richmond 79Richmond
2021Round 6MCGMelbourne 82, Richmond 48Melbourne
2022Round 6MCGRichmond 54, Melbourne 76Melbourne
2023Round 6MCGMelbourne 96, Richmond 78Melbourne
2023Round 20MCGRichmond 98, Melbourne 130Melbourne
2024Round 7MCGRichmond 42, Melbourne 85Melbourne
2025Round 7MCGMelbourne 83, Richmond 63Melbourne
2026Round 7MCGRichmond 72, Melbourne 126Melbourne
2026Round 18MCGMelbourne 111, Richmond 65Melbourne
The newest meetings appear first. These results come from the Squiggle API.

More details about this game

All Round 6 tips Melbourne fixture Richmond fixture