afl-tips.com

Port Adelaide vs Brisbane Lions Tips

Round 10 2027, Sat 22 May, 1:15pm AEST at Adelaide Oval: we tip Brisbane Lions by 14 with a 67% win chance.

Our tip
Brisbaneby 14 points
Win chance
67%Port Adelaide 33.3%, Brisbane 66.7%
Predicted score
89–103Port Adelaide first
Models with us
5 of 5every public model agrees

Every model on this game

PTABRI

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Brisbane66.7%14.3 pts
Elo Predicts!Brisbane79.1%32.0 pts
s10Brisbane70.5%18.4 pts
SquiggleBrisbane66.2%15.4 pts
StattractionBrisbane72.6%21.1 pts
Wheelo RatingsBrisbane68.5%15.7 pts
Squiggle aggregateBrisbane71.6%21.1 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Brisbane

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Port Adelaide rate −11.2 overall (15th) and Brisbane +14.8 (1st), which leaves Brisbane 14 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Port Adelaide−6.2−5.0−11.2LLLLW
Brisbane+17.4−2.6+14.8WLWWW
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
19no draws
Port Adelaide wins
8
Brisbane wins
11
Average margin
47.3points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2017Round 13Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide 121, Brisbane 81Port Adelaide
2018Round 3Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide 97, Brisbane 92Port Adelaide
2019Round 3GabbaBrisbane 107, Port Adelaide 90Brisbane
2019Round 17Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide 49, Brisbane 97Brisbane
2020Round 5GabbaBrisbane 85, Port Adelaide 48Brisbane
2021Round 7GabbaBrisbane 93, Port Adelaide 44Brisbane
2022Round 1GabbaBrisbane 80, Port Adelaide 69Brisbane
2023Round 1Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide 126, Brisbane 72Port Adelaide
2023Finals Week 1GabbaBrisbane 123, Port Adelaide 75Brisbane
2024Round 15Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide 73, Brisbane 152Brisbane
2025Round 17GabbaBrisbane 120, Port Adelaide 92Brisbane
2026Round 20GabbaBrisbane 126, Port Adelaide 67Brisbane
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

More on this game

All Round 10 tips Port Adelaide fixture Brisbane Lions fixture