afl-tips.com

Port Adelaide vs Essendon Tips

Round 22 2027, Mon 9 Aug, 12:30pm AEST at Adelaide Oval: we tip Port Adelaide by 22 with a 75% win chance.

Our tip
Port Adelaideby 22 points
Win chance
75%Port Adelaide 75.1%, Essendon 24.9%
Predicted score
98–75Port Adelaide first
Models with us
5 of 5every public model agrees

Every model on this game

PTAESS

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Port Adelaide75.1%22.3 pts
Elo Predicts!Port Adelaide74.5%21.0 pts
s10Port Adelaide71.8%19.7 pts
SquigglePort Adelaide78.4%28.6 pts
StattractionPort Adelaide72.4%21.0 pts
Wheelo RatingsPort Adelaide71.3%18.4 pts
Squiggle aggregatePort Adelaide74.1%22.2 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Port Adelaide

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Port Adelaide rate −11.2 overall (15th) and Essendon −22.3 (18th), which leaves Port Adelaide 22 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Port Adelaide−6.2−5.0−11.2LLLLW
Essendon−10.7−11.7−22.3LLLLL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
20no draws
Port Adelaide wins
12
Essendon wins
8
Average margin
36.0points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2018Round 23Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide 89, Essendon 111Essendon
2019Round 20Marvel StadiumEssendon 67, Port Adelaide 126Port Adelaide
2020Round 17Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide 79, Essendon 29Port Adelaide
2021Round 2Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide 119, Essendon 65Port Adelaide
2022Round 11Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide 66, Essendon 50Port Adelaide
2022Round 22Marvel StadiumEssendon 62, Port Adelaide 146Port Adelaide
2023Round 8Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide 92, Essendon 87Port Adelaide
2023Round 16MCGEssendon 74, Port Adelaide 78Port Adelaide
2024Round 4Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide 111, Essendon 42Port Adelaide
2025Round 3Marvel StadiumEssendon 72, Port Adelaide 60Essendon
2026Round 2Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide 133, Essendon 70Port Adelaide
2026Round 24Marvel StadiumEssendon 95, Port Adelaide 104Port Adelaide
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

More on this game

All Round 22 tips Port Adelaide fixture Essendon fixture