afl-tips.com

Richmond vs Essendon Tips

For the Round 9 2027 match at MCG on Fri 14 May, 7 45pm AEST, we pick Richmond to win by 3, with a 54% win chance.

The tip we choose
Richmondby 3 points
Win chance
Richmond 54.0%, Essendon 46.0%; 54%
Score prediction
86–83Richmond first
Models backing our pick
4 of 51 tip Essendon

Every model for this match

RICESS

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Richmond54.0%3.3 pts
Elo Predicts!Essendon63.3%12.0 pts
s10Richmond52.2%1.8 pts
SquiggleRichmond53.8%3.7 pts
StattractionRichmond50.6%0.5 pts
Wheelo RatingsRichmond53.8%3.1 pts
Squiggle aggregateEssendon51.3%1.2 pts
The win chance belongs to the club each source selects. Public model tips come from the Squiggle API, while the aggregate is Squiggle's average across all models. We grade these after the siren.

Why our tip is Richmond

Against an average side, each club's attack and defence are rated in points, with this game's home ground and travel also included by our ratings.

Richmond's overall rate is −21.8 (17th), while Essendon's is −22.3 (18th), which puts Richmond 3 points ahead on the day.

This model was right on 68.3% of its tips across 2,476 games played between 2015 and 2026. Its average margin error was 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Richmond−13.1−8.7−21.8LWLLL
Essendon−10.7−11.7−22.3LLLLL
These are points per game against an average side as of the start of 2027. Form covers the last five games of 2026, with the most recent shown on the right.

Head to head results since 2012

Meetings
23no draws
Wins for Richmond
17
Wins for Essendon
6
Mean margin
27.2points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2018Round 11MCGEssendon 43, Richmond 114Richmond
2018Round 22MCGRichmond 81, Essendon 73Richmond
2019Round 10MCGRichmond 73, Essendon 50Richmond
2020Round 13Marrara OvalEssendon 61, Richmond 73Richmond
2021Round 12Optus StadiumEssendon 84, Richmond 123Richmond
2022Round 10MCGRichmond 80, Essendon 48Richmond
2022Round 23MCGEssendon 75, Richmond 141Richmond
2023Round 10MCGEssendon 71, Richmond 70Essendon
2024Round 11MCGRichmond 74, Essendon 86Essendon
2025Round 11MCGEssendon 81, Richmond 58Essendon
2025Round 18MCGRichmond 46, Essendon 37Richmond
2026Round 11MCGRichmond 74, Essendon 56Richmond
The most recent meetings appear first. These results come from the Squiggle API.

Another meeting in 2027

Sun 4 Jul3:15pm AEST · Optus StadiumEssendon49%ESSRIC51%RichmondRichmond by 1Models 1–4

More details about this match

All Round 9 tips Richmond fixture Essendon fixture