afl-tips.com

Richmond vs Hawthorn Tips

Round 22 2027, Mon 9 Aug, 12:00pm AEST at MCG: we tip Hawthorn by 32 with a 83% win chance.

Our tip
Hawthornby 32 points
Win chance
83%Richmond 16.9%, Hawthorn 83.1%
Predicted score
70–101Richmond first
Models with us
5 of 5every public model agrees

Every model on this game

RICHAW

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Hawthorn83.1%31.6 pts
Elo Predicts!Hawthorn94.7%51.0 pts
s10Hawthorn85.4%36.8 pts
SquiggleHawthorn92.9%52.2 pts
StattractionHawthorn86.8%41.2 pts
Wheelo RatingsHawthorn83.9%32.4 pts
Squiggle aggregateHawthorn89.6%44.2 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Hawthorn

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Richmond rate −21.8 overall (17th) and Hawthorn +11.6 (5th), which leaves Hawthorn 32 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Richmond−13.1−8.7−21.8LWLLL
Hawthorn+7.1+4.4+11.6LDWWL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
201 drawn
Richmond wins
11
Hawthorn wins
8
Average margin
40.2points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2018Finals Week 1MCGRichmond 95, Hawthorn 64Richmond
2019Round 9MCGRichmond 95, Hawthorn 59Richmond
2020Round 3MCGRichmond 39, Hawthorn 71Hawthorn
2021Round 2MCGHawthorn 49, Richmond 78Richmond
2021Round 23MCGRichmond 83, Hawthorn 83Draw
2022Round 9MCGHawthorn 94, Richmond 117Richmond
2022Round 22MCGRichmond 128, Hawthorn 67Richmond
2023Round 19MCGRichmond 96, Hawthorn 95Richmond
2024Round 14MCGRichmond 49, Hawthorn 97Hawthorn
2024Round 23MCGHawthorn 131, Richmond 68Hawthorn
2025Round 8MCGHawthorn 109, Richmond 44Hawthorn
2026Round 19MCGRichmond 52, Hawthorn 122Hawthorn
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

More on this game

All Round 22 tips Richmond fixture Hawthorn fixture