afl-tips.com

St Kilda vs Geelong Tips

Geelong are our Round 4 2027 pick at Barossa Park on Sun 11 Apr, 3 : 15pm AEST. We tip them by 16 with a 69% win chance.

The tip we give
Geelongby 16 points
Win chance
St Kilda 31.2%; Geelong 68.8%; 69%
Score we predict
85–101St Kilda first
Models backing our tip
5 of 5every public model agrees

All models for this match

STKGEE

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Geelong68.8%16.2 pts
Elo Predicts!Geelong77.4%21.0 pts
s10Geelong72.8%20.7 pts
SquiggleGeelong66.0%15.2 pts
StattractionGeelong71.4%20.1 pts
Wheelo RatingsGeelong74.2%21.2 pts
Squiggle aggregateGeelong72.3%19.4 pts
Each source's win chance applies to the club it tips. Public model tips come from the Squiggle API, and the aggregate is Squiggle's average across all models. Results are graded after the siren.

Why our tip is Geelong

Our ratings score each club's attack and defence using points against an average side. We include the home ground and travel for this game.

St Kilda's overall rating is −2.1 (13th), while Geelong's is +14.1 (3rd). That puts Geelong 16 points ahead on the day.

Over 2,476 games between 2015 and 2026, this model got 68.3% of its tips right. Its average margin error was 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
St Kilda−0.5−1.6−2.1WLLWL
Geelong+13.4+0.6+14.1WWWWL
At the start of 2027, points per game against an average side. Form covers the last five games of 2026, with the most recent on the right.

Head to head record since 2012

Meetings
191 drawn
Wins for St Kilda
5
Wins for Geelong
13
Mean margin
33.0points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2019Round 17GMHBA StadiumGeelong 84, St Kilda 57Geelong
2020Round 11GabbaSt Kilda 34, Geelong 93Geelong
2021Round 9Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 47, Geelong 68Geelong
2021Round 22GMHBA StadiumGeelong 85, St Kilda 71Geelong
2022Round 9Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 90, Geelong 80St Kilda
2022Round 21GMHBA StadiumGeelong 110, St Kilda 65Geelong
2023Round 23Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 88, Geelong 55St Kilda
2024Round 1GMHBA StadiumGeelong 76, St Kilda 68Geelong
2024Round 23Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 107, Geelong 89St Kilda
2025Round 2Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 98, Geelong 91St Kilda
2025Round 19GMHBA StadiumGeelong 113, St Kilda 82Geelong
2026Round 19GMHBA StadiumGeelong 102, St Kilda 75Geelong
The most recent meetings are listed first. Match results come from the Squiggle API.

Another meeting in 2027

Mon 26 Jul12:00pm AEST · Marvel StadiumSt Kilda37%STKGEE63%GeelongGeelong by 11Models 0–5

More about this match

All Round 4 tips St Kilda fixture Geelong fixture