afl-tips.com

St Kilda vs Melbourne Tips

Round 3 2027, Sat 3 Apr, 1:35pm AEDT at Marvel Stadium: we tip Melbourne by 3 with a 53% win chance.

Our tip
Melbourneby 3 points
Win chance
53%St Kilda 46.9%, Melbourne 53.1%
Predicted score
90–93St Kilda first
Models with us
3 of 52 tip St Kilda

Every model on this game

STKMEL

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Melbourne53.1%2.6 pts
Elo Predicts!St Kilda50.0%1.0 pts
s10Melbourne58.2%7.1 pts
SquiggleSt Kilda50.0%0.0 pts
StattractionMelbourne58.8%7.8 pts
Wheelo RatingsMelbourne57.6%6.3 pts
Squiggle aggregateMelbourne54.1%3.3 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Melbourne

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

St Kilda rate −2.1 overall (13th) and Melbourne +5.0 (8th), which leaves Melbourne 3 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
St Kilda−0.5−1.6−2.1WLLWL
Melbourne+7.3−2.3+5.0WWWLL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
22no draws
St Kilda wins
13
Melbourne wins
9
Average margin
24.0points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2018Round 7Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 67, Melbourne 106Melbourne
2018Round 15MCGMelbourne 117, St Kilda 119St Kilda
2019Round 5MCGMelbourne 55, St Kilda 95St Kilda
2019Round 19Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 104, Melbourne 85St Kilda
2020Round 14Traeger ParkMelbourne 52, St Kilda 49Melbourne
2021Round 2Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 73, Melbourne 91Melbourne
2022Round 8MCGMelbourne 93, St Kilda 55Melbourne
2023Round 17Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 58, Melbourne 79Melbourne
2024Round 11MCGMelbourne 100, St Kilda 62Melbourne
2025Round 12Traeger ParkMelbourne 63, St Kilda 91St Kilda
2025Round 20Marvel StadiumSt Kilda 96, Melbourne 90St Kilda
2026Round 1MCGMelbourne 120, St Kilda 107Melbourne
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

More on this game

All Round 3 tips St Kilda fixture Melbourne fixture