afl-tips.com

Sydney vs Collingwood Tips

Our pick is Sydney to win by 13, with a 66% win chance in Round 4 2027. The match starts Fri 9 Apr, 7: 40pm AEST at Adelaide Oval.

The pick we make
Sydneyby 13 points
Win chance
66%; Sydney 65.5% and Collingwood 34.5%
Score prediction
101–88Sydney first
Models that agree with us
4 of 51 tip Collingwood

All models for this match

SYDCOL

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Sydney65.5%13.1 pts
Elo Predicts!Collingwood64.7%11.0 pts
s10Sydney65.7%14.0 pts
SquiggleSydney62.1%11.7 pts
StattractionSydney70.4%18.9 pts
Wheelo RatingsSydney61.0%9.1 pts
Squiggle aggregateSydney57.2%7.2 pts
Each source's win chance applies to the club it tips. Public model tips come from the Squiggle API, while the aggregate shows Squiggle's average of all models. Results are graded after the siren.

Why our tip is Sydney

Our ratings use attack and defence points against an average side for each club. Home ground and travel also factor into this matchup.

Overall, Sydney's rating is +14.5 (2nd), while Collingwood's is +0.9 (10th). That puts Sydney 13 points better on the day.

This model tipped 68.3% of more than 2,476 games correctly from 2015 to 2026. Its average margin error was 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Sydney+13.0+1.5+14.5WWWWL
Collingwood+3.0−2.1+0.9LWDLL
Against an average side, points per game, start of 2027. The form covers the last five games of 2026, and the latest sits on the right.

Head-to-head results since 2012

Meetings
19no draws
Wins for Sydney
11
Wins for Collingwood
8
Mean margin
21.1points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2017Round 3SCGSydney 79, Collingwood 80Collingwood
2018Round 20SCGSydney 73, Collingwood 71Sydney
2019Round 10SCGSydney 73, Collingwood 80Collingwood
2020Round 10GabbaCollingwood 50, Sydney 41Collingwood
2021Round 9SCGSydney 72, Collingwood 42Sydney
2022Round 22SCGSydney 77, Collingwood 50Sydney
2022Preliminary FinalsSCGSydney 95, Collingwood 94Sydney
2023Round 8MCGCollingwood 77, Sydney 48Collingwood
2024Round 1MCGCollingwood 69, Sydney 102Sydney
2024Round 22SCGSydney 89, Collingwood 86Sydney
2025Round 5Adelaide OvalCollingwood 109, Sydney 78Collingwood
2026Round 10SCGSydney 81, Collingwood 75Sydney
The most recent meetings are listed first. These results come from the Squiggle API.

More about this match

All Round 4 tips Sydney fixture Collingwood fixture