afl-tips.com

Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn Tips

Round 5 2027, Sat 17 Apr, 7:35pm AEST at Marvel Stadium: we tip Hawthorn by 5 with a 56% win chance.

Our tip
Hawthornby 5 points
Win chance
56%Western Bulldogs 43.9%, Hawthorn 56.1%
Predicted score
84–90Western Bulldogs first
Models with us
4 of 51 tip Western Bulldogs

Every model on this game

WBDHAW

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Hawthorn56.1%5.1 pts
Elo Predicts!Western Bulldogs51.8%1.0 pts
s10Hawthorn61.9%10.4 pts
SquiggleHawthorn65.0%14.3 pts
StattractionHawthorn65.5%13.9 pts
Wheelo RatingsHawthorn58.3%6.8 pts
Squiggle aggregateHawthorn59.2%8.5 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Hawthorn

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Western Bulldogs rate +1.8 overall (9th) and Hawthorn +11.6 (5th), which leaves Hawthorn 5 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Western Bulldogs+0.1+1.7+1.8LDWWL
Hawthorn+7.1+4.4+11.6LDWWL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
20no draws
Western Bulldogs wins
7
Hawthorn wins
13
Average margin
30.6points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2019Round 2MCGHawthorn 87, Western Bulldogs 106Western Bulldogs
2020Round 17Adelaide OvalHawthorn 40, Western Bulldogs 76Western Bulldogs
2021Round 22York ParkHawthorn 64, Western Bulldogs 37Hawthorn
2022Round 15Marvel StadiumWestern Bulldogs 125, Hawthorn 83Western Bulldogs
2022Round 23York ParkHawthorn 64, Western Bulldogs 87Western Bulldogs
2023Round 7Marvel StadiumWestern Bulldogs 94, Hawthorn 65Western Bulldogs
2023Round 22York ParkHawthorn 67, Western Bulldogs 64Hawthorn
2024Round 8Marvel StadiumWestern Bulldogs 91, Hawthorn 98Hawthorn
2024Finals Week 1MCGWestern Bulldogs 62, Hawthorn 99Hawthorn
2025Round 13Marvel StadiumWestern Bulldogs 59, Hawthorn 81Hawthorn
2026Round 5Adelaide OvalHawthorn 104, Western Bulldogs 64Hawthorn
2026Round 13MCGHawthorn 71, Western Bulldogs 77Western Bulldogs
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

They meet again in 2027

Mon 23 Aug12:00pm AEST · MCGHawthorn65%HAWWBD35%Western BulldogsHawthorn by 13Models 5–0

More on this game

All Round 5 tips Western Bulldogs fixture Hawthorn fixture