afl-tips.com

Carlton vs Collingwood Tips

For the Round 5 2027 match at MCG on Thu 15 Apr, 7: 30pm AEST, Carlton gets our tip by 3 and a 53% win chance.

The tip we give
Carltonby 3 points
Win chance
Carlton 53.0%, Collingwood 47.0%, 53%
Score forecast
90–87Carlton first
Models backing us
4 of 51 tip Collingwood

All models for this game

CARCOL

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Carlton53.0%2.5 pts
Elo Predicts!Collingwood69.5%17.0 pts
s10Carlton54.0%3.6 pts
SquiggleCarlton50.2%0.2 pts
StattractionCarlton56.9%6.2 pts
Wheelo RatingsCarlton51.1%0.9 pts
Squiggle aggregateCollingwood52.8%2.4 pts
Each source's win chance applies to the club it tips. The Squiggle API supplies public model tips, while Squiggle's average across all models produces the aggregate. Tips are graded after the siren.

Why our tip is Carlton

Our ratings score attack and defence for each club in points against an average side. For this game, they include home ground and travel.

Overall, Carlton rate +5.4 (7th), while Collingwood rate +0.9 (10th). That puts Carlton 3 points ahead on the day.

Between 2015 and 2026, the model tipped 68.3% correctly across 2,476 games. Its average margin error was 27.0 points. How it works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Carlton+2.2+3.1+5.4WDWWL
Collingwood+3.0−2.1+0.9LWDLL
Points per game against an average side as of the start of 2027. Form covers the last five games of 2026, with the latest on the right.

Head to head from 2012

Meetings
27no draws
Wins for Carlton
6
Wins for Collingwood
21
Margin on average
23.3points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2021Round 2MCGCarlton 85, Collingwood 106Collingwood
2021Round 18MCGCollingwood 62, Carlton 91Carlton
2022Round 11MCGCollingwood 79, Carlton 75Collingwood
2022Round 23MCGCarlton 74, Collingwood 75Collingwood
2023Round 10MCGCarlton 57, Collingwood 85Collingwood
2023Round 20MCGCollingwood 76, Carlton 93Carlton
2024Round 8MCGCarlton 79, Collingwood 85Collingwood
2024Round 21MCGCollingwood 84, Carlton 81Collingwood
2025Round 4MCGCollingwood 63, Carlton 46Collingwood
2025Round 17MCGCarlton 59, Collingwood 115Collingwood
2026Round 6MCGCarlton 83, Collingwood 88Collingwood
2026Round 19MCGCollingwood 90, Carlton 69Collingwood
Most recent meetings appear first. Results come from the Squiggle API.

They play again in 2027

Mon 2 Aug12:00pm AEST · MCGCollingwood47%COLCAR53%CarltonCarlton by 3Models 3–2

More about this game

All Round 5 tips Carlton fixture Collingwood fixture