afl-tips.com

Carlton vs Melbourne Tips

Round 4 2027, Sat 10 Apr, 1:35pm AEST at Adelaide Oval: we tip Melbourne by 1 with a 50% win chance.

Our tip
Melbourneby 1 points
Win chance
50%Carlton 49.9%, Melbourne 50.1%
Predicted score
91–91Carlton first
Models with us
3 of 52 tip Carlton

Every model on this game

CARMEL

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Melbourne50.1%0.1 pts
Elo Predicts!Carlton57.5%1.0 pts
s10Melbourne54.6%3.9 pts
SquiggleCarlton53.5%3.6 pts
StattractionMelbourne52.2%2.0 pts
Wheelo RatingsMelbourne57.0%5.8 pts
Squiggle aggregateCarlton50.4%0.8 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Melbourne

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Carlton rate +5.4 overall (7th) and Melbourne +5.0 (8th), which leaves Melbourne 1 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Carlton+2.2+3.1+5.4WDWWL
Melbourne+7.3−2.3+5.0WWWLL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
19no draws
Carlton wins
9
Melbourne wins
10
Average margin
22.9points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2018Round 9MCGCarlton 50, Melbourne 159Melbourne
2019Round 16MCGCarlton 100, Melbourne 105Melbourne
2020Round 2Marvel StadiumCarlton 53, Melbourne 54Melbourne
2021Round 9MCGMelbourne 94, Carlton 68Melbourne
2022Round 22MCGMelbourne 79, Carlton 74Melbourne
2023Round 12MCGMelbourne 61, Carlton 44Melbourne
2023Round 22MCGCarlton 60, Melbourne 56Carlton
2023Semi-FinalsMCGMelbourne 71, Carlton 73Carlton
2024Round 9MCGCarlton 77, Melbourne 76Carlton
2025Round 19MCGCarlton 78, Melbourne 70Carlton
2026Round 3MCGCarlton 77, Melbourne 100Melbourne
2026Wildcard FinalsMCGMelbourne 55, Carlton 74Carlton
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

They meet again in 2027

Mon 12 Jul12:00pm AEST · MCGCarlton49%CARMEL51%MelbourneMelbourne by 1Models 2–3

More on this game

All Round 4 tips Carlton fixture Melbourne fixture