afl-tips.com

Essendon vs Geelong Tips

Round 5 2027, Sun 18 Apr, 12:30pm AEST at MCG: we tip Geelong by 36 with a 86% win chance.

Our tip
Geelongby 36 points
Win chance
86%Essendon 13.8%, Geelong 86.2%
Predicted score
75–111Essendon first
Models with us
5 of 5every public model agrees

Every model on this game

ESSGEE

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Geelong86.2%35.9 pts
Elo Predicts!Geelong85.8%43.0 pts
s10Geelong88.4%42.1 pts
SquiggleGeelong88.6%44.0 pts
StattractionGeelong89.8%47.5 pts
Wheelo RatingsGeelong87.0%36.7 pts
Squiggle aggregateGeelong87.8%42.8 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Geelong

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Essendon rate −22.3 overall (18th) and Geelong +14.1 (3rd), which leaves Geelong 36 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Essendon−10.7−11.7−22.3LLLLL
Geelong+13.4+0.6+14.1WWWWL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
18no draws
Essendon wins
2
Geelong wins
16
Average margin
48.9points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2017Round 8MCGEssendon 110, Geelong 93Essendon
2018Round 9MCGEssendon 84, Geelong 50Essendon
2019Round 7MCGGeelong 86, Essendon 54Geelong
2020Round 16GabbaGeelong 108, Essendon 42Geelong
2021Round 16GMHBA StadiumGeelong 98, Essendon 57Geelong
2022Round 1MCGGeelong 138, Essendon 72Geelong
2023Round 7MCGEssendon 104, Geelong 132Geelong
2023Round 18GMHBA StadiumGeelong 122, Essendon 45Geelong
2024Round 16MCGGeelong 105, Essendon 60Geelong
2025Round 14MCGEssendon 56, Geelong 151Geelong
2025Round 22GMHBA StadiumGeelong 109, Essendon 65Geelong
2026Round 22GMHBA StadiumGeelong 117, Essendon 50Geelong
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

They meet again in 2027

Mon 16 Aug12:00pm AEST · GMHBA StadiumGeelong89%GEEESS11%EssendonGeelong by 40Models 5–0

More on this game

All Round 5 tips Essendon fixture Geelong fixture