afl-tips.com

Essendon vs North Melbourne Tips

Round 4 2027, Sun 11 Apr, 12:30pm AEST at Norwood Oval: we tip North Melbourne by 15 with a 68% win chance.

Our tip
North Melbourneby 15 points
Win chance
68%Essendon 32.4%, North Melbourne 67.6%
Predicted score
82–97Essendon first
Models with us
4 of 51 tip Essendon

Every model on this game

ESSNTH

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)North Melbourne67.6%15.1 pts
Elo Predicts!Essendon58.8%10.0 pts
s10North Melbourne68.3%16.0 pts
SquiggleNorth Melbourne71.1%20.3 pts
StattractionNorth Melbourne66.2%14.4 pts
Wheelo RatingsNorth Melbourne70.4%17.5 pts
Squiggle aggregateNorth Melbourne62.2%10.6 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip North Melbourne

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Essendon rate −22.3 overall (18th) and North Melbourne −7.3 (14th), which leaves North Melbourne 15 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Essendon−10.7−11.7−22.3LLLLL
North Melbourne−1.1−6.2−7.3LLWLL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
22no draws
Essendon wins
14
North Melbourne wins
8
Average margin
23.4points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2019Round 5Marvel StadiumNorth Melbourne 58, Essendon 116Essendon
2019Round 17Marvel StadiumEssendon 86, North Melbourne 81Essendon
2020Round 6People First StadiumEssendon 67, North Melbourne 53Essendon
2021Round 10Marvel StadiumEssendon 141, North Melbourne 69Essendon
2021Round 18People First StadiumNorth Melbourne 74, Essendon 92Essendon
2022Round 20Marvel StadiumEssendon 114, North Melbourne 66Essendon
2023Round 12Marvel StadiumEssendon 105, North Melbourne 99Essendon
2023Round 22Marvel StadiumNorth Melbourne 77, Essendon 86Essendon
2024Round 10Marvel StadiumEssendon 106, North Melbourne 66Essendon
2025Round 8Marvel StadiumEssendon 65, North Melbourne 62Essendon
2026Round 3Marvel StadiumEssendon 69, North Melbourne 81North Melbourne
2026Round 16Marvel StadiumNorth Melbourne 79, Essendon 65North Melbourne
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

They meet again in 2027

Sat 19 Jun7:35pm AEST · Marvel StadiumEssendon32%ESSNTH68%North MelbourneNorth Melbourne by 16Models 1–4

More on this game

All Round 4 tips Essendon fixture North Melbourne fixture