afl-tips.com

Fremantle vs Brisbane Lions Tips

Round 8 2027, Sun 9 May, 7:20pm AEST at Optus Stadium: we tip Fremantle by 9 with a 61% win chance.

Our tip
Fremantleby 9 points
Win chance
61%Fremantle 60.7%, Brisbane 39.3%
Predicted score
100–91Fremantle first
Models with us
4 of 51 tip Brisbane

Every model on this game

FREBRI

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Fremantle60.7%9.0 pts
Elo Predicts!Brisbane62.3%22.0 pts
s10Fremantle63.5%11.8 pts
SquiggleFremantle66.8%16.0 pts
StattractionFremantle65.2%13.9 pts
Wheelo RatingsFremantle61.8%9.8 pts
Squiggle aggregateFremantle57.9%4.4 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Fremantle

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Fremantle rate +12.8 overall (4th) and Brisbane +14.8 (1st), which leaves Fremantle 9 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Fremantle+5.7+7.1+12.8LLWWL
Brisbane+17.4−2.6+14.8WLWWW
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
19no draws
Fremantle wins
10
Brisbane wins
9
Average margin
37.8points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2018Round 15Optus StadiumFremantle 64, Brisbane 119Brisbane
2019Round 10Optus StadiumFremantle 73, Brisbane 72Fremantle
2020Round 2GabbaBrisbane 81, Fremantle 69Brisbane
2021Round 8GabbaBrisbane 95, Fremantle 71Brisbane
2021Round 21Optus StadiumFremantle 54, Brisbane 118Brisbane
2022Round 12Optus StadiumFremantle 99, Brisbane 85Fremantle
2023Round 7GabbaBrisbane 115, Fremantle 67Brisbane
2023Round 21Optus StadiumFremantle 74, Brisbane 77Brisbane
2024Round 1Optus StadiumFremantle 93, Brisbane 70Fremantle
2025Round 23Optus StadiumFremantle 44, Brisbane 101Brisbane
2026Round 12GabbaBrisbane 78, Fremantle 103Fremantle
2026Grand FinalMCGFremantle 89, Brisbane 96Brisbane
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

They meet again in 2027

Thu 1 Jul7:30pm AEST · GabbaBrisbane64%BRIFRE36%FremantleBrisbane by 12Models 5–0

More on this game

All Round 8 tips Fremantle fixture Brisbane Lions fixture