afl-tips.com

Fremantle vs Hawthorn Tips

Round 4 2027, Sat 10 Apr, 7:45pm AEST at Adelaide Oval: we tip Fremantle by 2 with a 52% win chance.

Our tip
Fremantleby 2 points
Win chance
52%Fremantle 51.8%, Hawthorn 48.2%
Predicted score
88–86Fremantle first
Models with us
2 of 53 tip Hawthorn

Every model on this game

FREHAW

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Fremantle51.8%1.5 pts
Elo Predicts!Hawthorn64.9%10.0 pts
s10Fremantle55.1%4.6 pts
SquiggleHawthorn58.5%8.3 pts
StattractionFremantle61.2%10.0 pts
Wheelo RatingsHawthorn51.0%0.8 pts
Squiggle aggregateHawthorn53.3%2.3 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Fremantle

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Fremantle rate +12.8 overall (4th) and Hawthorn +11.6 (5th), which leaves Fremantle 2 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Fremantle+5.7+7.1+12.8LLWWL
Hawthorn+7.1+4.4+11.6LDWWL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
21no draws
Fremantle wins
9
Hawthorn wins
12
Average margin
36.0points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2018Round 19Optus StadiumFremantle 53, Hawthorn 112Hawthorn
2019Round 17York ParkHawthorn 84, Fremantle 53Hawthorn
2020Round 11Optus StadiumFremantle 48, Hawthorn 32Fremantle
2021Round 4Optus StadiumFremantle 96, Hawthorn 81Fremantle
2021Round 17York ParkHawthorn 46, Fremantle 108Fremantle
2022Round 13Optus StadiumFremantle 95, Hawthorn 82Fremantle
2023Round 8Optus StadiumFremantle 117, Hawthorn 48Fremantle
2023Round 24MCGHawthorn 56, Fremantle 93Fremantle
2024Round 18York ParkHawthorn 87, Fremantle 74Hawthorn
2025Round 18Optus StadiumFremantle 77, Hawthorn 64Fremantle
2026Round 9Optus StadiumFremantle 88, Hawthorn 73Fremantle
2026Finals Week 1Optus StadiumFremantle 40, Hawthorn 72Hawthorn
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

They meet again in 2027

Thu 17 Jun7:30pm AEST · MCGHawthorn60%HAWFRE40%FremantleHawthorn by 8Models 4–1

More on this game

All Round 4 tips Fremantle fixture Hawthorn fixture