afl-tips.com

Gold Coast vs Hawthorn Tips

Our Round 6 2027 selection is Hawthorn by 4 with a 54% chance of winning. Thu 22 Apr, 7: 30pm AEST at People First Stadium.

Our selection
Hawthornby 4 points
Win chance
These figures are 54%, Gold Coast 45.6% and Hawthorn 54.4%.
Score prediction
87–91Gold Coast first
Models backing us
4 of 51 tip Gold Coast

All models for this match

GCSHAW

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Hawthorn54.4%3.7 pts
Elo Predicts!Hawthorn54.3%9.0 pts
s10Hawthorn56.6%5.9 pts
SquiggleHawthorn67.4%16.6 pts
StattractionHawthorn63.3%11.8 pts
Wheelo RatingsGold Coast50.0%0.0 pts
Squiggle aggregateHawthorn58.7%9.3 pts
Each win chance applies to the club chosen by that source. Public model tips come from the Squiggle API, while Squiggle's aggregate averages all models. Results are graded after the siren.

Why our choice is Hawthorn

We assess each club's attack and defence using points against an average side. For this game, our ratings also account for the home ground and travel.

Overall, Gold Coast rate −1.8 (12th), while Hawthorn sit at +11.6 (5th), putting Hawthorn 4 points ahead for this match.

This model tipped 68.3% of 2,476 games correctly from 2015 to 2026. Its average margin error was 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Gold Coast+0.5−2.4−1.8LLWLW
Hawthorn+7.1+4.4+11.6LDWWL
These are points per game against an average side at the start of 2027. Form covers the final five games of 2026, with the most recent on the right.

Head-to-head record since 2012

Meetings
19no draws
Wins for Gold Coast
7
Wins for Hawthorn
12
Average point margin
47.4points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2017Round 12MCGHawthorn 79, Gold Coast 95Gold Coast
2018Round 14University of Tasmania StadiumHawthorn 96, Gold Coast 43Hawthorn
2019Round 22Marvel StadiumHawthorn 118, Gold Coast 48Hawthorn
2020Round 18Adelaide OvalHawthorn 108, Gold Coast 57Hawthorn
2021Round 11SCGGold Coast 113, Hawthorn 76Gold Coast
2022Round 11Marrara OvalGold Coast 121, Hawthorn 54Gold Coast
2022Round 21York ParkHawthorn 70, Gold Coast 63Hawthorn
2023Round 15People First StadiumGold Coast 101, Hawthorn 34Gold Coast
2024Round 5People First StadiumGold Coast 109, Hawthorn 56Gold Coast
2025Round 10Marrara OvalGold Coast 104, Hawthorn 96Gold Coast
2026Round 7York ParkHawthorn 112, Gold Coast 63Hawthorn
2026Round 15People First StadiumGold Coast 97, Hawthorn 113Hawthorn
The newest meetings appear first. These results are from the Squiggle API.

Another meeting in 2027

Mon 12 Jul12:00pm AEST · York ParkHawthorn74%HAWGCS26%Gold CoastHawthorn by 21Models 5–0

More about this match

All Round 6 tips Gold Coast fixture Hawthorn fixture