afl-tips.com

Greater Western Sydney vs Essendon Tips

Round 11 2027, Sat 29 May, 4:15pm AEST at Sydney Showground: we tip Greater Western Sydney by 32 with a 83% win chance.

Our tip
GWSby 32 points
Win chance
83%GWS 83.1%, Essendon 16.9%
Predicted score
106–74GWS first
Models with us
5 of 5every public model agrees

Every model on this game

GWSESS

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)GWS83.1%31.6 pts
Elo Predicts!GWS86.8%38.0 pts
s10GWS80.8%29.8 pts
SquiggleGWS84.3%36.9 pts
StattractionGWS80.0%30.1 pts
Wheelo RatingsGWS81.7%29.5 pts
Squiggle aggregateGWS83.2%33.6 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip GWS

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

GWS rate −0.2 overall (11th) and Essendon −22.3 (18th), which leaves GWS 32 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
GWS+3.1−3.3−0.2LWLWL
Essendon−10.7−11.7−22.3LLLLL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
20no draws
GWS wins
11
Essendon wins
9
Average margin
30.9points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2019Round 1Sydney ShowgroundGWS 112, Essendon 40GWS
2019Round 15Marvel StadiumEssendon 77, GWS 71Essendon
2020Round 10People First StadiumEssendon 55, GWS 59GWS
2021Round 8Sydney ShowgroundGWS 107, Essendon 105GWS
2021Round 19People First StadiumEssendon 53, GWS 66GWS
2022Round 21Sydney ShowgroundGWS 96, Essendon 69GWS
2023Round 4Marvel StadiumEssendon 88, GWS 75Essendon
2023Round 23Sydney ShowgroundGWS 162, Essendon 36GWS
2024Round 9Marvel StadiumEssendon 82, GWS 62Essendon
2025Round 19Marvel StadiumEssendon 56, GWS 104GWS
2026Round 9Sydney ShowgroundGWS 103, Essendon 89GWS
2026Round 19Marvel StadiumEssendon 67, GWS 64Essendon
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

They meet again in 2027

Mon 12 Jul12:00pm AEST · Marvel StadiumEssendon33%ESSGWS67%GWSGWS by 14Models 0–5

More on this game

All Round 11 tips Greater Western Sydney fixture Essendon fixture