afl-tips.com

Melbourne vs Sydney Tips

Round 5 2027, Fri 16 Apr, 7:40pm AEST at MCG: we tip Melbourne by 1 with a 51% win chance.

Our tip
Melbourneby 1 points
Win chance
51%Melbourne 50.8%, Sydney 49.2%
Predicted score
97–97Melbourne first
Models with us
1 of 54 tip Sydney

Every model on this game

MELSYD

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Melbourne50.8%0.7 pts
Elo Predicts!Sydney51.7%9.0 pts
s10Sydney50.9%0.8 pts
SquiggleSydney59.6%9.4 pts
StattractionSydney52.9%2.4 pts
Wheelo RatingsMelbourne51.1%0.9 pts
Squiggle aggregateSydney53.3%5.0 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Melbourne

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Melbourne rate +5.0 overall (8th) and Sydney +14.5 (2nd), which leaves Melbourne 1 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Melbourne+7.3−2.3+5.0WWWLL
Sydney+13.0+1.5+14.5WWWWL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
18no draws
Melbourne wins
5
Sydney wins
13
Average margin
33.4points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2018Round 21MCGMelbourne 78, Sydney 87Sydney
2019Round 4SCGSydney 78, Melbourne 100Melbourne
2019Round 22MCGMelbourne 42, Sydney 95Sydney
2020Round 15Cazaly's StadiumSydney 67, Melbourne 46Sydney
2021Round 8MCGMelbourne 67, Sydney 58Melbourne
2022Round 12MCGMelbourne 61, Sydney 73Sydney
2022Finals Week 1MCGMelbourne 69, Sydney 91Sydney
2023Round 3MCGMelbourne 134, Sydney 84Melbourne
2023Round 24SCGSydney 56, Melbourne 77Melbourne
2024Opening RoundSCGSydney 86, Melbourne 64Sydney
2025Round 11MCGMelbourne 131, Sydney 78Melbourne
2026Round 8SCGSydney 131, Melbourne 114Sydney
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

They meet again in 2027

Fri 2 Jul7:40pm AEST · SCGSydney73%SYDMEL27%MelbourneSydney by 20Models 5–0

More on this game

All Round 5 tips Melbourne fixture Sydney fixture