afl-tips.com

Sydney vs Hawthorn Tips

Round 10 2027, Fri 21 May, 7:40pm AEST at SCG: we tip Sydney by 14 with a 66% win chance.

Our tip
Sydneyby 14 points
Win chance
66%Sydney 66.4%, Hawthorn 33.6%
Predicted score
101–87Sydney first
Models with us
3 of 52 tip Hawthorn

Every model on this game

SYDHAW

our win chanceeach public modelSquiggle aggregate

SourceTipWin chanceMargin
afl-tips.com (ours)Sydney66.4%14.0 pts
Elo Predicts!Hawthorn61.5%12.0 pts
s10Sydney62.6%10.8 pts
SquiggleHawthorn54.0%3.8 pts
StattractionSydney60.0%8.7 pts
Wheelo RatingsSydney65.2%12.8 pts
Squiggle aggregateSydney52.4%1.4 pts
Win chance is for the club each source tips. Public model tips from the Squiggle API; the aggregate is Squiggle's average of all models. Graded after the siren.

Why we tip Sydney

Our ratings score each club on attack and defence in points against an average side, with the home ground and travel added for this game.

Sydney rate +14.5 overall (2nd) and Hawthorn +11.6 (5th), which leaves Sydney 14 points better on the day.

Over 2,476 games from 2015 to 2026, this model tipped 68.3% correctly with an average margin error of 27.0 points. How the model works

ClubAttackDefenceNet2026 form
Sydney+13.0+1.5+14.5WWWWL
Hawthorn+7.1+4.4+11.6LDWWL
Points per game against an average side, start of 2027. Form is the last five games of 2026, latest on the right.

Head to head since 2012

Meetings
25no draws
Sydney wins
11
Hawthorn wins
14
Average margin
27.6points, either way
SeasonRoundGroundScoreWinner
2017Round 10SCGSydney 75, Hawthorn 81Hawthorn
2017Round 19MCGHawthorn 72, Sydney 66Hawthorn
2018Round 8MCGHawthorn 71, Sydney 79Sydney
2018Round 23SCGSydney 74, Hawthorn 83Hawthorn
2019Round 14SCGSydney 82, Hawthorn 63Sydney
2020Round 8SCGSydney 60, Hawthorn 53Sydney
2021Round 13SCGSydney 51, Hawthorn 89Hawthorn
2022Round 6York ParkHawthorn 68, Sydney 109Sydney
2023Round 2SCGSydney 118, Hawthorn 37Sydney
2024Round 7MCGHawthorn 42, Sydney 118Sydney
2025Opening RoundSCGSydney 76, Hawthorn 96Hawthorn
2026Round 2MCGHawthorn 99, Sydney 82Hawthorn
Latest meetings first. Results from the Squiggle API.

They meet again in 2027

Mon 2 Aug12:00pm AEST · York ParkHawthorn56%HAWSYD44%SydneyHawthorn by 5Models 5–0

More on this game

All Round 10 tips Sydney fixture Hawthorn fixture